Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 11:30 AM
Manchester City FCvsLiverpool FC
Outcome probabilities
60%
23%
17%
Man City winDrawLiverpool win
Man City
60%
fair odds 1.68
Draw
23%
fair odds 4.30
Liverpool
17%
fair odds 5.84
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.17 – 1.12
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
Under 2.5 goals
36%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 110.7%
- #22 – 19.8%
- #32 – 08.7%
- #43 – 17.1%
- #51 – 06.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →