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Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 04:30 PM

Manchester United FCvsChelsea FC

Outcome probabilities

44%
27%
29%
Man United winDrawChelsea win

Man United

44%

fair odds 2.28

Draw

27%

fair odds 3.73

Chelsea

29%

fair odds 3.41

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.77 – 1.42

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

Under 2.5 goals

38%

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 – 1
    12.2%
  • #22 – 1
    9.1%
  • #31 – 2
    7.4%
  • #42 – 2
    6.5%
  • #52 – 0
    6.4%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →