La Liga · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Real Madrid CFvsFC Barcelona
Outcome probabilities
57%
26%
17%
Real Madrid winDrawBarcelona win
Real Madrid
57%
fair odds 1.75
Draw
26%
fair odds 3.89
Barcelona
17%
fair odds 5.81
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.91 – 0.99
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
45%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 112.3%
- #22 – 010.0%
- #32 – 19.9%
- #41 – 08.6%
- #50 – 07.3%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →