Bundesliga · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 03:30 PM
FC Bayern MünchenvsBorussia Dortmund
Outcome probabilities
73%
16%
11%
Bayern winDrawDortmund win
Bayern
73%
fair odds 1.36
Draw
16%
fair odds 6.09
Dortmund
10%
fair odds 9.72
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.90 – 1.09
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
76%
Under 2.5 goals
24%
Most likely scorelines
- #12 – 18.5%
- #23 – 18.2%
- #32 – 07.8%
- #43 – 07.5%
- #51 – 16.9%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →