Ligue 1 · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 08:00 PM
Paris Saint-Germain FCvsOlympique de Marseille
Outcome probabilities
81%
14%
PSG winDrawMarseille win
PSG
81%
fair odds 1.24
Draw
14%
fair odds 7.19
Marseille
5%
fair odds 18.40
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.91 – 0.73
Both teams to score
50%
Over 2.5 goals
70%
Under 2.5 goals
30%
Most likely scorelines
- #12 – 011.1%
- #23 – 010.8%
- #32 – 18.1%
- #44 – 07.9%
- #53 – 17.9%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →