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Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 11:30 AM

Aston Villa FCvsSouthampton FC

Outcome probabilities

81%
13%
Aston Villa winDrawSouthampton win

Aston Villa

81%

fair odds 1.24

Draw

13%

fair odds 7.46

Southampton

6%

fair odds 17.74

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

3.03 – 0.79

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

73%

Under 2.5 goals

27%

Most likely scorelines

  • #13 – 0
    10.2%
  • #22 – 0
    10.1%
  • #33 – 1
    8.0%
  • #42 – 1
    7.9%
  • #54 – 0
    7.7%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →