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Serie A · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 04:00 PM

AS RomavsAC Milan

Outcome probabilities

46%
28%
26%
Roma winDrawMilan win

Roma

46%

fair odds 2.20

Draw

28%

fair odds 3.63

Milan

27%

fair odds 3.72

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.72 – 1.29

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

42%

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 – 1
    12.9%
  • #22 – 1
    9.4%
  • #32 – 0
    7.3%
  • #41 – 2
    7.1%
  • #50 – 0
    6.9%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →