Serie A · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 06:45 PM
AC MilanvsAtalanta BC
Outcome probabilities
54%
25%
21%
Milan winDrawAtalanta win
Milan
54%
fair odds 1.86
Draw
25%
fair odds 4.03
Atalanta
21%
fair odds 4.69
Market vs model
Market median
2.07 / 3.40 / 3.55
Model edge
+11.5%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.03 – 1.24
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals
37%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 111.3%
- #22 – 19.7%
- #32 – 07.8%
- #43 – 16.6%
- #52 – 26.0%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →