Serie A · Monday, May 11, 2026 · 06:45 PM
SSC NapolivsBologna FC 1909
Outcome probabilities
60%
24%
16%
Napoli winDrawBologna win
Napoli
60%
fair odds 1.67
Draw
24%
fair odds 4.11
Bologna
16%
fair odds 6.38
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.03 – 0.98
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals
42%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 111.6%
- #22 – 010.2%
- #32 – 110.0%
- #41 – 08.3%
- #53 – 06.9%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →