Mintscore

FIFA World Cup · Saturday, June 20, 2026 · 12:30 AM

BrazilvsHaiti

Outcome probabilities

42%
30%
28%
Brazil winDrawHaiti win

Brazil

42%

fair odds 2.38

Draw

30%

fair odds 3.35

Haiti

28%

fair odds 3.55

Market vs model

Market median

1.08 / 11.05 / 27.05

Model edge

+662.7%

Recommended stake

2.50% of bankroll

Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.50 - 1.20

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

Under 2.5 goals

49%

Form & scorers

Brazil · last 1

D

0W · 1D · 0L

Haiti · last 1

L

0W · 0D · 1L

FIFA World Cup top scorers

  • 1Folarin BalogunUSA2
  • 2Julián QuiñonesMexico1
  • 3Raúl JiménezMexico1
  • 4Ladislav KrejčíCzechia1
  • 5In-beom HwangKorea Republic1
  • 6Hyun-Gyu OhKorea Republic1
  • 7Jovo LukićBosnia-H.1
  • 8Cyle LarinCanada1

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    14.3%
  • #22 - 1
    9.1%
  • #30 - 0
    8.9%
  • #41 - 0
    7.9%
  • #52 - 0
    7.6%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →