FIFA World Cup · Saturday, June 20, 2026 · 05:00 PM
NetherlandsvsSweden
Outcome probabilities
Netherlands
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Sweden
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
1.68 / 3.91 / 4.90
Model edge
+38.2%
Recommended stake
2.45% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Yasin AyariSweden2goals
FIFA World Cup top scorers
- 1Folarin BalogunUSA2
- 2Kai HavertzGermany2
- 3Elijah JustNew Zealand2
- 4Julián QuiñonesMexico1
- 5Raúl JiménezMexico1
- 6Ladislav KrejčíCzechia1
- 7In-beom HwangKorea Republic1
- 8Hyun-Gyu OhKorea Republic1
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →