FIFA World Cup · Thursday, June 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM
JapanvsSweden
Outcome probabilities
42%
30%
28%
Japan winDrawSweden win
Japan
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Sweden
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
2.11 / 3.40 / 3.40
Model edge
+1.4%
Recommended stake
0.15% of bankroll
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Yasin AyariSweden2goals
FIFA World Cup top scorers
- 1Lionel MessiArgentina3
- 2Jonathan DavidCanada3
- 3Cyle LarinCanada2
- 4Folarin BalogunUSA2
- 5Kai HavertzGermany2
- 6Elijah JustNew Zealand2
- 7Kylian MbappéFrance2
- 8Erling HaalandNorway2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →