FIFA World Cup · Saturday, June 27, 2026 · 03:00 AM
New ZealandvsBelgium
Outcome probabilities
New Zealand
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Belgium
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
12.62 / 6.10 / 1.22
Model edge
+429.4%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Form & scorers
Top scorers playing today
- Elijah JustNew Zealand2goals
FIFA World Cup top scorers
- 1Deniz UndavGermany3
- 2Lionel MessiArgentina3
- 3Jonathan DavidCanada3
- 4Cyle LarinCanada2
- 5Folarin BalogunUSA2
- 6Ismael SaibariMorocco2
- 7Vinicius JuniorBrazil2
- 8Kai HavertzGermany2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links, Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Got a code on another bookmaker?
Convert booking codes between SportyBet, Bet9ja, 1xBet, BetKing & MSport instantly.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →