FIFA World Cup · Saturday, June 27, 2026 · 12:00 AM
UruguayvsSpain
Outcome probabilities
Uruguay
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Spain
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
6.00 / 4.20 / 1.54
Model edge
+151.8%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Form & scorers
FIFA World Cup top scorers
- 1Lionel MessiArgentina3
- 2Jonathan DavidCanada3
- 3Cyle LarinCanada2
- 4Folarin BalogunUSA2
- 5Ismael SaibariMorocco2
- 6Vinicius JuniorBrazil2
- 7Kai HavertzGermany2
- 8Yasin AyariSweden2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →