FIFA World Cup · Tuesday, June 23, 2026 · 12:00 AM
NorwayvsSenegal
Outcome probabilities
42%
30%
28%
Norway winDrawSenegal win
Norway
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Senegal
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
2.12 / 3.45 / 3.39
Model edge
+2.9%
Recommended stake
0.30% of bankroll
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Form & scorers
Norway
Recent form unavailable.
Senegal
Recent form unavailable.
FIFA World Cup top scorers
- 1Folarin BalogunUSA2
- 2Kai HavertzGermany2
- 3Yasin AyariSweden2
- 4Elijah JustNew Zealand2
- 5Julián QuiñonesMexico1
- 6Raúl JiménezMexico1
- 7Ladislav KrejčíCzechia1
- 8In-beom HwangKorea Republic1
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →