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Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 02:00 PM

Sunderland AFCvsManchester United FC

Outcome probabilities

45%
28%
27%
Sunderland winDrawMan United win

Sunderland

45%

fair odds 2.24

Draw

28%

fair odds 3.61

Man United

28%

fair odds 3.62

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.71 – 1.31

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

42%

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 – 1
    12.9%
  • #22 – 1
    9.3%
  • #31 – 2
    7.2%
  • #42 – 0
    7.1%
  • #50 – 0
    6.9%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →