Premier League · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 01:00 PM
Crystal Palace FCvsEverton FC
Outcome probabilities
56%
26%
18%
Crystal Palace winDrawEverton win
Crystal Palace
56%
fair odds 1.79
Draw
26%
fair odds 3.82
Everton
18%
fair odds 5.57
Market vs model
Market median
2.80 / 3.35 / 2.50
Model edge
+56.4%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.87 – 1.00
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
45%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 112.5%
- #22 – 09.9%
- #32 – 19.9%
- #41 – 08.7%
- #50 – 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →