Premier League · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 01:00 PM
Burnley FCvsAston Villa FC
Outcome probabilities
41%
28%
31%
Burnley winDrawAston Villa win
Burnley
41%
fair odds 2.41
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.56
Aston Villa
30%
fair odds 3.29
Market vs model
Market median
5.20 / 4.10 / 1.61
Model edge
+115.8%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.63 – 1.38
Both teams to score
62%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals
42%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 113.1%
- #22 – 19.0%
- #31 – 27.6%
- #40 – 07.0%
- #52 – 06.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →