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Premier League · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 11:30 AM

Liverpool FCvsChelsea FC

Outcome probabilities

65%
21%
14%
Liverpool winDrawChelsea win

Liverpool

65%

fair odds 1.54

Draw

21%

fair odds 4.72

Chelsea

14%

fair odds 7.21

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

2.36 – 1.05

Both teams to score

60%

Over 2.5 goals

66%

Under 2.5 goals

34%

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 – 1
    9.7%
  • #22 – 1
    9.7%
  • #32 – 0
    9.2%
  • #43 – 1
    7.6%
  • #53 – 0
    7.2%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →