Premier League · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 01:00 PM
Nottingham Forest FCvsNewcastle United FC
Outcome probabilities
36%
28%
36%
Nottingham winDrawNewcastle win
Nottingham
36%
fair odds 2.81
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.63
Newcastle
37%
fair odds 2.71
Market vs model
Market median
2.70 / 3.55 / 2.50
Model edge
-2.1%
Recommended stake
no stake
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.55 – 1.58
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
61%
Under 2.5 goals
39%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 112.6%
- #21 – 28.5%
- #32 – 18.3%
- #42 – 26.6%
- #50 – 06.3%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →