Premier League · Friday, May 15, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Aston Villa FCvsLiverpool FC
Outcome probabilities
40%
26%
34%
Aston Villa winDrawLiverpool win
Aston Villa
40%
fair odds 2.50
Draw
26%
fair odds 3.85
Liverpool
34%
fair odds 2.95
Market vs model
Market median
3.40 / 4.00 / 1.90
Model edge
+36.2%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.78 – 1.63
Both teams to score
69%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
34%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 111.3%
- #22 – 18.5%
- #31 – 27.8%
- #42 – 27.0%
- #52 – 05.2%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →