Bundesliga · Saturday, May 9, 2026 · 04:30 PM
VfL WolfsburgvsFC Bayern München
Outcome probabilities
18%
22%
60%
Wolfsburg winDrawBayern win
Wolfsburg
18%
fair odds 5.59
Draw
22%
fair odds 4.50
Bayern
60%
fair odds 1.67
Market vs model
Market median
5.00 / 3.95 / 1.61
Model edge
-3.5%
Recommended stake
no stake
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.24 – 2.31
Both teams to score
65%
Over 2.5 goals
69%
Under 2.5 goals
31%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 19.7%
- #21 – 29.5%
- #30 – 27.7%
- #41 – 37.3%
- #50 – 35.9%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links — Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →