Bundesliga · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 01:30 PM
Hamburger SVvsSC Freiburg
Outcome probabilities
42%
28%
30%
HSV winDrawFreiburg win
HSV
42%
fair odds 2.41
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.60
Freiburg
31%
fair odds 3.26
Market vs model
Market median
2.65 / 3.65 / 2.43
Model edge
+10.1%
Recommended stake
1.53% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.65 – 1.40
Both teams to score
63%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
41%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 112.9%
- #22 – 19.0%
- #31 – 27.7%
- #40 – 06.7%
- #52 – 06.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →