Primera Division · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 02:15 PM
Athletic ClubvsValencia CF
Outcome probabilities
71%
20%
9%
Athletic winDrawValencia win
Athletic
71%
fair odds 1.40
Draw
20%
fair odds 4.95
Valencia
9%
fair odds 11.71
Market vs model
Market median
1.70 / 3.78 / 5.00
Model edge
+21.1%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.26 – 0.70
Both teams to score
47%
Over 2.5 goals
57%
Under 2.5 goals
43%
Most likely scorelines
- #12 – 013.2%
- #21 – 010.2%
- #33 – 09.9%
- #41 – 19.7%
- #52 – 19.3%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →