Primera Division · Sunday, May 10, 2026 · 07:00 PM
FC BarcelonavsReal Madrid CF
Outcome probabilities
49%
28%
23%
Barça winDrawReal Madrid win
Barça
49%
fair odds 2.05
Draw
28%
fair odds 3.60
Real Madrid
23%
fair odds 4.26
Market vs model
Market median
1.62 / 4.80 / 4.40
Model edge
+33.4%
Recommended stake
2.20% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.73 – 1.15
Both teams to score
58%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
45%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 113.2%
- #22 – 19.6%
- #32 – 08.4%
- #41 – 07.7%
- #50 – 07.6%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links — Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →