Primera Division · Monday, May 11, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Rayo Vallecano de MadridvsGirona FC
Outcome probabilities
43%
31%
26%
Rayo Vallecano winDrawGirona win
Rayo Vallecano
43%
fair odds 2.33
Draw
31%
fair odds 3.26
Girona
26%
fair odds 3.78
Market vs model
Market median
2.37 / 3.40 / 3.00
Model edge
+4.3%
Recommended stake
0.45% of bankroll
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.45 – 1.10
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals
53%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 114.7%
- #20 – 010.0%
- #31 – 09.1%
- #42 – 19.0%
- #52 – 08.2%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →