Primera Division · Tuesday, May 12, 2026 · 07:30 PM
CA OsasunavsClub Atlético de Madrid
Outcome probabilities
30%
32%
38%
Osasuna winDrawAtleti win
Osasuna
30%
fair odds 3.29
Draw
32%
fair odds 3.16
Atleti
38%
fair odds 2.63
Market vs model
Market median
2.59 / 3.50 / 2.58
Model edge
+10.7%
Recommended stake
1.07% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.16 – 1.32
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
45%
Under 2.5 goals
55%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 115.1%
- #20 – 010.7%
- #30 – 18.7%
- #41 – 28.5%
- #52 – 17.4%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links — Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →