Primera Division · Thursday, May 14, 2026 · 07:30 PM
Real Madrid CFvsReal Oviedo
Outcome probabilities
75%
18%
Real Madrid winDrawReal Oviedo win
Real Madrid
75%
fair odds 1.34
Draw
18%
fair odds 5.44
Real Oviedo
7%
fair odds 14.17
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.39 – 0.66
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals
41%
Most likely scorelines
- #12 – 013.5%
- #23 – 010.8%
- #31 – 010.0%
- #42 – 18.9%
- #51 – 18.8%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →