Primeira Liga · Monday, May 11, 2026 · 07:15 PM
CF Estrela da AmadoravsFC Famalicão
Outcome probabilities
42%
30%
28%
Amadora winDrawFamalicão win
Amadora
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Famalicão
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
3.54 / 3.40 / 2.00
Model edge
+48.8%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly — conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 – 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Most likely scorelines
- #11 – 114.3%
- #22 – 19.1%
- #30 – 08.9%
- #41 – 07.9%
- #52 – 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →