Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Saturday, August 8, 2026 · 11:30 PM
Coritiba FBCvsChapecoense AF
Outcome probabilities
Coritiba
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Chapecoense
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
1.58 / 3.80 / 5.25
Model edge
+48.0%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Head to head · last 1
0
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
3
Goals for
3
Goals against
Form & scorers
Coritiba · last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
Chapecoense · last 5
0W · 1D · 4L
Top scorers playing today
- Breno LopesCoritiba8goals
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A top scorers
- 1Kevin ViverosParanaense12
- 2PedroFlamengo12
- 3Carlos ViníciusGrêmio10
- 4John KennedyFluminense9
- 5Danilo dos Santos de OliveiraBotafogo7
- 6Jonathan CalleriSão Paulo7
- 7Arthur CabralBotafogo7
- 8Luciano JubaBahia7
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →