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Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 02:00 PM

Cruzeiro ECvsMirassol FC

Outcome probabilities

42%
30%
28%
Cruzeiro winDrawMirassol win

Cruzeiro

42%

fair odds 2.38

Draw

30%

fair odds 3.35

Mirassol

28%

fair odds 3.55

Market vs model

Market median

1.67 / 3.65 / 4.80

Model edge

+35.3%

Recommended stake

2.32% of bankroll

Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.50 - 1.20

Both teams to score

56%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

Under 2.5 goals

49%

Head to head · last 3

1

Wins

2

Draws

0

Losses

5

Goals for

4

Goals against

Form & scorers

Campeonato Brasileiro Série A top scorers

  • 1Kevin ViverosParanaense12
  • 2PedroFlamengo12
  • 3Carlos ViníciusGrêmio10
  • 4John KennedyFluminense9
  • 5Breno LopesCoritiba8
  • 6Danilo dos Santos de OliveiraBotafogo7
  • 7Jonathan CalleriSão Paulo7
  • 8Arthur CabralBotafogo7

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    14.3%
  • #22 - 1
    9.1%
  • #30 - 0
    8.9%
  • #41 - 0
    7.9%
  • #52 - 0
    7.6%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →