Campeonato Brasileiro Série A · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 08:00 PM
Chapecoense AFvsSC Internacional
Outcome probabilities
Chapecoense
42%
fair odds 2.38
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.35
Internacional
28%
fair odds 3.55
Market vs model
Market median
2.78 / 3.20 / 2.43
Model edge
+16.7%
Recommended stake
2.34% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.50 - 1.20
Both teams to score
56%
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Head to head · last 3
0
Wins
0
Draws
3
Losses
3
Goals for
9
Goals against
Form & scorers
Chapecoense · last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
Internacional · last 5
0W · 3D · 2L
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A top scorers
- 1Kevin ViverosParanaense17
- 2PedroFlamengo15
- 3Carlos ViníciusGrêmio10
- 4Gabriel BarbosaSantos10
- 5John KennedyFluminense9
- 6Samuel LinoFlamengo9
- 7José Manuel LópezPalmeiras8
- 8LucianoSão Paulo8
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.3%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #30 - 08.9%
- #41 - 07.9%
- #52 - 07.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →