Eredivisie · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 12:30 PM
FC GroningenvsFC Utrecht
Outcome probabilities
43%
27%
30%
Groningen winDrawUtrecht win
Groningen
43%
fair odds 2.34
Draw
27%
fair odds 3.66
Utrecht
30%
fair odds 3.33
Market vs model
Market median
2.30 / 3.40 / 2.88
Model edge
-1.9%
Recommended stake
no stake
Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.71 - 1.41
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
60%
Under 2.5 goals
40%
Head to head · last 5
1
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
4
Goals for
8
Goals against
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 112.6%
- #22 - 19.1%
- #31 - 27.5%
- #42 - 06.4%
- #52 - 26.4%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →