Eredivisie · Tuesday, September 15, 2026 · 06:00 PM
AFC AjaxvsWillem II Tilburg
Outcome probabilities
Ajax
56%
fair odds 1.78
Draw
26%
fair odds 3.84
Willem II
18%
fair odds 5.61
Market vs model
Market median
1.14 / 7.50 / 14.00
Model edge
+149.4%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.88 - 1.00
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
55%
Under 2.5 goals
45%
Head to head · last 6
5
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
13
Goals for
3
Goals against
Form & scorers
Willem II · last 4
0W · 1D · 3L
Eredivisie top scorers
- 1Søren TengstedtGo Ahead4
- 2Ro-Zangelo DaalAZ4
- 3Milan ZonneveldSparta4
- 4Rafik el ArguiouiCambuur4
- 5Gjivai ZechiëlFeyenoord4
- 6David GardenExcelsior3
- 7Luciano ValenteFeyenoord3
- 8Brynjolfur Darri WillumssonGroningen3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 112.4%
- #22 - 09.9%
- #32 - 19.9%
- #41 - 08.6%
- #50 - 07.5%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links, Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Got a code on another bookmaker?
Convert booking codes between SportyBet, Bet9ja, 1xBet, BetKing & MSport instantly.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →