Mintscore

Serie A · Monday, September 14, 2026 · 04:30 PM

Torino FCvsAS Roma

Outcome probabilities

26%
27%
47%
Torino winDrawRoma win

Torino

26%

fair odds 3.87

Draw

27%

fair odds 3.66

Roma

47%

fair odds 2.14

Market vs model

Market median

5.50 / 3.80 / 1.60

Model edge

+42.1%

Recommended stake

2.34% of bankroll

Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.27 - 1.75

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

42%

Head to head · last 5

1

Wins

0

Draws

4

Losses

3

Goals for

8

Goals against

Form & scorers

Top scorers playing today

  • Donyell MalenRoma5goals
  • Che AdamsTorino2goals
  • Matias SouleRoma2goals

Serie A top scorers

  • 1Antonio RaimondoFrosinone4
  • 2Davide FrattesiLazio3
  • 3Hassane KamaraUdinese2
  • 4Anastasios DouvikasComo 19072
  • 5Hakan ÇalhanoğluInter2
  • 6Gustavo VarelaMonza2
  • 7Alphadjo CisseMilan2
  • 8Martin BaturinaComo 19072

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    12.8%
  • #21 - 2
    9.5%
  • #30 - 2
    7.5%
  • #42 - 1
    6.9%
  • #50 - 0
    6.8%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →