Serie A · Monday, September 14, 2026 · 04:30 PM
Torino FCvsAS Roma
Outcome probabilities
Torino
26%
fair odds 3.87
Draw
27%
fair odds 3.66
Roma
47%
fair odds 2.14
Market vs model
Market median
5.50 / 3.80 / 1.60
Model edge
+42.1%
Recommended stake
2.34% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.27 - 1.75
Both teams to score
61%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals
42%
Head to head · last 5
1
Wins
0
Draws
4
Losses
3
Goals for
8
Goals against
Form & scorers
Torino · last 3
1W · 0D · 2L
Top scorers playing today
- Donyell MalenRoma5goals
- Che AdamsTorino2goals
- Matias SouleRoma2goals
Serie A top scorers
- 1Antonio RaimondoFrosinone4
- 2Davide FrattesiLazio3
- 3Hassane KamaraUdinese2
- 4Anastasios DouvikasComo 19072
- 5Hakan ÇalhanoğluInter2
- 6Gustavo VarelaMonza2
- 7Alphadjo CisseMilan2
- 8Martin BaturinaComo 19072
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 112.8%
- #21 - 29.5%
- #30 - 27.5%
- #42 - 16.9%
- #50 - 06.8%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →