Eredivisie · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 04:45 PM
Go Ahead EaglesvsFC Groningen
Outcome probabilities
Go Ahead
50%
fair odds 2.02
Draw
25%
fair odds 4.00
Groningen
25%
fair odds 3.93
Market vs model
Market median
2.20 / 3.78 / 2.70
Model edge
+9.0%
Recommended stake
1.88% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.00 - 1.41
Both teams to score
67%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals
34%
Head to head · last 6
2
Wins
3
Draws
1
Losses
5
Goals for
4
Goals against
Form & scorers
Go Ahead · last 5
2W · 2D · 1L
Groningen · last 5
2W · 1D · 2L
Top scorers playing today
- Søren TengstedtGo Ahead4goals
- Brynjolfur Darri WillumssonGroningen3goals
- Thom van BergenGroningen3goals
Eredivisie top scorers
- 1Ro-Zangelo DaalAZ4
- 2Milan ZonneveldSparta4
- 3Rafik el ArguiouiCambuur4
- 4Gjivai ZechiëlFeyenoord4
- 5David GardenExcelsior3
- 6Luciano ValenteFeyenoord3
- 7Tjaronn CheryNEC3
- 8Artem StepanovUtrecht3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 111.0%
- #22 - 19.3%
- #32 - 06.6%
- #41 - 26.6%
- #52 - 26.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →