Eredivisie · Friday, September 11, 2026 · 06:00 PM
AZvsWillem II Tilburg
Outcome probabilities
AZ
53%
fair odds 1.87
Draw
23%
fair odds 4.42
Willem II
24%
fair odds 4.18
Market vs model
Market median
1.13 / 8.00 / 14.00
Model edge
+234.8%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
2.29 - 1.53
Both teams to score
72%
Over 2.5 goals
73%
Under 2.5 goals
27%
Head to head · last 6
4
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
15
Goals for
8
Goals against
Form & scorers
Willem II · last 4
0W · 1D · 3L
Top scorers playing today
- Ro-Zangelo DaalAZ4goals
Eredivisie top scorers
- 1Søren TengstedtGo Ahead4
- 2Milan ZonneveldSparta4
- 3Rafik el ArguiouiCambuur4
- 4Gjivai ZechiëlFeyenoord4
- 5David GardenExcelsior3
- 6Luciano ValenteFeyenoord3
- 7Brynjolfur Darri WillumssonGroningen3
- 8Thom van BergenGroningen3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 19.0%
- #22 - 18.8%
- #32 - 26.7%
- #43 - 16.7%
- #51 - 25.9%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →