Premier League · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Crystal Palace FCvsIpswich Town FC
Outcome probabilities
Crystal Palace
29%
fair odds 3.48
Draw
34%
fair odds 2.93
Ipswich Town
37%
fair odds 2.69
Market vs model
Market median
1.88 / 3.60 / 4.00
Model edge
+48.7%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.00 - 1.17
Both teams to score
46%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
63%
Head to head · last 2
2
Wins
0
Draws
0
Losses
2
Goals for
0
Goals against
Form & scorers
Crystal Palace · last 3
1W · 0D · 2L
Ipswich Town · last 3
1W · 0D · 2L
Premier League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City3
- 2Alexander IsakLiverpool3
- 3Bruno FernandesMan United3
- 4Kai HavertzArsenal2
- 5Bukayo SakaArsenal2
- 6Martin ØdegaardArsenal2
- 7Vitaly JaneltBrentford2
- 8Marcus TavernierBournemouth2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 115.8%
- #20 - 013.9%
- #30 - 111.0%
- #41 - 09.1%
- #50 - 27.8%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →