Premier League · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Sunderland AFCvsArsenal FC
Outcome probabilities
Sunderland
17%
fair odds 5.81
Draw
33%
fair odds 3.05
Arsenal
50%
fair odds 2.00
Market vs model
Market median
6.54 / 4.10 / 1.50
Model edge
+34.4%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
0.69 - 1.34
Both teams to score
39%
Over 2.5 goals
33%
Under 2.5 goals
67%
Head to head · last 2
0
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
2
Goals for
5
Goals against
Form & scorers
Sunderland · last 3
1W · 1D · 1L
Arsenal · last 3
3W · 0D · 0L
Top scorers playing today
- Kai HavertzArsenal2goals
- Bukayo SakaArsenal2goals
- Martin ØdegaardArsenal2goals
Premier League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City3
- 2Alexander IsakLiverpool3
- 3Bruno FernandesMan United3
- 4Vitaly JaneltBrentford2
- 5Marcus TavernierBournemouth2
- 6Jack HinshelwoodBrighton Hove2
- 7Anthony ElangaNewcastle2
- 8João PedroChelsea2
Most likely scorelines
- #10 - 115.3%
- #20 - 015.3%
- #31 - 114.4%
- #40 - 211.7%
- #51 - 28.1%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →