Premier League · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 01:00 PM
Coventry City FCvsBrighton & Hove Albion FC
Outcome probabilities
Coventry City
39%
fair odds 2.54
Draw
31%
fair odds 3.20
Brighton Hove
29%
fair odds 3.40
Market vs model
Market median
4.20 / 3.75 / 1.79
Model edge
+65.4%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.37 - 1.16
Both teams to score
53%
Over 2.5 goals
46%
Under 2.5 goals
54%
Form & scorers
Coventry City · last 3
0W · 0D · 3L
Brighton Hove · last 3
1W · 1D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Jack HinshelwoodBrighton Hove2goals
Premier League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City3
- 2Alexander IsakLiverpool3
- 3Bruno FernandesMan United3
- 4Kai HavertzArsenal2
- 5Bukayo SakaArsenal2
- 6Martin ØdegaardArsenal2
- 7Vitaly JaneltBrentford2
- 8Marcus TavernierBournemouth2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.9%
- #20 - 010.3%
- #32 - 18.7%
- #41 - 08.7%
- #52 - 07.5%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →