Premier League · Monday, September 14, 2026 · 07:00 PM
Leeds United FCvsNewcastle United FC
Outcome probabilities
Leeds United
44%
fair odds 2.28
Draw
34%
fair odds 2.98
Newcastle
23%
fair odds 4.44
Market vs model
Market median
2.30 / 3.50 / 2.89
Model edge
+17.4%
Recommended stake
1.74% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.27 - 0.85
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals
64%
Head to head · last 6
0
Wins
4
Draws
2
Losses
6
Goals for
8
Goals against
- LJan 7, 2026Newcastle 4 - 3 Leeds UnitedPremier League
- DAug 30, 2025Leeds United 0 - 0 NewcastlePremier League
- DMay 13, 2023Leeds United 2 - 2 NewcastlePremier League
- DDec 31, 2022Newcastle 0 - 0 Leeds UnitedPremier League
- LJan 22, 2022Leeds United 0 - 1 NewcastlePremier League
- DSep 17, 2021Newcastle 1 - 1 Leeds UnitedPremier League
Form & scorers
Leeds United · last 3
1W · 2D · 0L
Newcastle · last 3
1W · 2D · 0L
Top scorers playing today
- Anthony ElangaNewcastle2goals
Premier League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City3
- 2Alexander IsakLiverpool3
- 3Bruno FernandesMan United3
- 4Kai HavertzArsenal2
- 5Bukayo SakaArsenal2
- 6Martin ØdegaardArsenal2
- 7Vitaly JaneltBrentford2
- 8Marcus TavernierBournemouth2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 115.3%
- #20 - 014.3%
- #31 - 012.9%
- #42 - 09.7%
- #52 - 18.2%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →