Mintscore

Premier League · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 03:30 PM

Manchester United FCvsManchester City FC

Outcome probabilities

31%
27%
42%
Man United winDrawMan City win

Man United

31%

fair odds 3.21

Draw

27%

fair odds 3.72

Man City

42%

fair odds 2.38

Market vs model

Market median

3.02 / 3.80 / 2.10

Model edge

+2.2%

Recommended stake

0.19% of bankroll

Market is roughly aligned with the model. No edge worth chasing here.

Goal expectations

Expected goals (xG)

1.48 - 1.73

Both teams to score

65%

Over 2.5 goals

62%

Under 2.5 goals

38%

Head to head · last 4

2

Wins

1

Draws

1

Losses

4

Goals for

4

Goals against

Form & scorers

Top scorers playing today

  • Erling HaalandMan City3goals
  • Bruno FernandesMan United3goals

Premier League top scorers

  • 1Alexander IsakLiverpool3
  • 2Kai HavertzArsenal2
  • 3Bukayo SakaArsenal2
  • 4Martin ØdegaardArsenal2
  • 5Vitaly JaneltBrentford2
  • 6Marcus TavernierBournemouth2
  • 7Jack HinshelwoodBrighton Hove2
  • 8Anthony ElangaNewcastle2

Most likely scorelines

  • #11 - 1
    12.2%
  • #21 - 2
    8.9%
  • #32 - 1
    7.6%
  • #42 - 2
    6.6%
  • #50 - 2
    6.0%

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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →