Premier League · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Chelsea FCvsHull City AFC
Outcome probabilities
Chelsea
36%
fair odds 2.77
Draw
30%
fair odds 3.30
Hull City
34%
fair odds 2.97
Market vs model
Market median
1.25 / 6.00 / 11.00
Model edge
+269.9%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.37 - 1.32
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
50%
Under 2.5 goals
50%
Form & scorers
Chelsea · last 3
2W · 0D · 1L
Hull City · last 3
2W · 1D · 0L
Top scorers playing today
- João PedroChelsea2goals
Premier League top scorers
- 1Erling HaalandMan City3
- 2Alexander IsakLiverpool3
- 3Bruno FernandesMan United3
- 4Kai HavertzArsenal2
- 5Bukayo SakaArsenal2
- 6Martin ØdegaardArsenal2
- 7Vitaly JaneltBrentford2
- 8Marcus TavernierBournemouth2
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.5%
- #20 - 09.0%
- #32 - 18.4%
- #41 - 28.1%
- #51 - 07.1%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →