Championship · Wednesday, September 9, 2026 · 06:45 PM
Derby County FCvsWest Bromwich Albion FC
Outcome probabilities
Derby County
47%
fair odds 2.12
Draw
32%
fair odds 3.11
West Brom
21%
fair odds 4.82
Market vs model
Market median
2.78 / 3.35 / 2.42
Model edge
+31.0%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.38 - 0.85
Both teams to score
45%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
62%
Head to head · last 4
3
Wins
1
Draws
0
Losses
7
Goals for
3
Goals against
Form & scorers
Derby County · last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
West Brom · last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Jimmy MorganWest Brom3goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 5Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 6Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 7Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
- 8Callum LangPreston NE3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.9%
- #20 - 013.0%
- #31 - 012.6%
- #42 - 010.3%
- #52 - 18.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →