Championship · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Southampton FCvsBristol City FC
Outcome probabilities
Southampton
51%
fair odds 1.98
Draw
31%
fair odds 3.19
Bristol City
18%
fair odds 5.54
Market vs model
Market median
1.57 / 4.13 / 4.80
Model edge
+29.8%
Recommended stake
2.37% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.44 - 0.78
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
38%
Under 2.5 goals
62%
Head to head · last 4
1
Wins
1
Draws
2
Losses
5
Goals for
8
Goals against
Form & scorers
Southampton · last 5
3W · 2D · 0L
Bristol City · last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Cyle LarinSouthampton5goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 3Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 4Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 5Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 6Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 7Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
- 8Callum LangPreston NE3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.4%
- #21 - 013.5%
- #30 - 013.1%
- #42 - 011.3%
- #52 - 18.8%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →