Championship · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 11:30 AM
Derby County FCvsBirmingham City FC
Outcome probabilities
Derby County
51%
fair odds 1.98
Draw
32%
fair odds 3.17
Birmingham
18%
fair odds 5.59
Market vs model
Market median
3.10 / 3.30 / 2.17
Model edge
+56.7%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the home outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.42 - 0.76
Both teams to score
43%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
63%
Head to head · last 6
2
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
9
Goals for
7
Goals against
- WMar 21, 2026Derby County 1 - 0 BirminghamChampionship
- DDec 26, 2025Birmingham 1 - 1 Derby CountyChampionship
- DJan 30, 2022Derby County 2 - 2 BirminghamChampionship
- LSep 10, 2021Birmingham 2 - 0 Derby CountyChampionship
- LApr 24, 2021Derby County 1 - 2 BirminghamChampionship
- WDec 29, 2020Birmingham 0 - 4 Derby CountyChampionship
Form & scorers
Derby County · last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
Birmingham · last 5
1W · 4D · 0L
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 6Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 7Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 8Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.4%
- #21 - 013.8%
- #30 - 013.4%
- #42 - 011.4%
- #52 - 18.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →