Championship · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Blackburn Rovers FCvsMillwall FC
Outcome probabilities
Blackburn
15%
fair odds 6.52
Draw
33%
fair odds 3.02
Millwall
52%
fair odds 1.94
Market vs model
Market median
2.80 / 3.26 / 2.38
Model edge
+22.7%
Recommended stake
2.50% of bankroll
Model rates the away outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
0.62 - 1.31
Both teams to score
36%
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals
70%
Head to head · last 6
4
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
11
Goals for
5
Goals against
Form & scorers
Blackburn · last 5
1W · 1D · 3L
Millwall · last 5
3W · 0D · 2L
Top scorers playing today
- Andri GuðjohnsenBlackburn2goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 6Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 7Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 8Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
Most likely scorelines
- #10 - 117.0%
- #20 - 016.6%
- #31 - 113.9%
- #40 - 212.5%
- #51 - 27.7%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →