Championship · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 11:30 AM
Bolton Wanderers FCvsCardiff City FC
Outcome probabilities
Bolton
39%
fair odds 2.55
Draw
31%
fair odds 3.26
Cardiff
30%
fair odds 3.32
Market vs model
Market median
2.61 / 3.51 / 2.40
Model edge
+7.8%
Recommended stake
0.77% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.40 - 1.20
Both teams to score
55%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals
52%
Form & scorers
Bolton · last 5
0W · 1D · 4L
Cardiff · last 5
0W · 3D · 2L
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 5Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 6Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 7Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 8Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.7%
- #20 - 09.6%
- #32 - 18.7%
- #41 - 08.1%
- #51 - 27.5%
Place this bet at
Affiliate links, Mintscore earns commission if you sign up. Doesn't affect odds you receive.
Got a code on another bookmaker?
Convert booking codes between SportyBet, Bet9ja, 1xBet, BetKing & MSport instantly.
Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →