Championship · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 11:30 AM
West Bromwich Albion FCvsQueens Park Rangers FC
Outcome probabilities
West Brom
47%
fair odds 2.12
Draw
32%
fair odds 3.08
QPR
20%
fair odds 4.90
Market vs model
Market median
1.91 / 3.60 / 3.60
Model edge
+16.7%
Recommended stake
1.61% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.36 - 0.82
Both teams to score
44%
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
63%
Head to head · last 6
4
Wins
1
Draws
1
Losses
11
Goals for
7
Goals against
Form & scorers
West Brom · last 5
3W · 1D · 1L
Top scorers playing today
- Jimmy MorganWest Brom3goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Ethan GalbraithStoke4
- 4Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 5Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 6Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 7Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
- 8Callum LangPreston NE3
Most likely scorelines
- #11 - 114.9%
- #20 - 013.5%
- #31 - 013.0%
- #42 - 010.4%
- #52 - 18.6%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →