Championship · Saturday, September 12, 2026 · 02:00 PM
Watford FCvsStoke City FC
Outcome probabilities
Watford
43%
fair odds 2.32
Draw
36%
fair odds 2.78
Stoke
21%
fair odds 4.77
Market vs model
Market median
2.50 / 3.30 / 2.62
Model edge
+18.5%
Recommended stake
2.01% of bankroll
Model rates the draw outcome higher than the market. Stake is at quarter-Kelly, conservative because models are imperfect and full Kelly is brutal on losing streaks.
Goal expectations
Expected goals (xG)
1.13 - 0.72
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
28%
Under 2.5 goals
72%
Head to head · last 6
2
Wins
2
Draws
2
Losses
6
Goals for
5
Goals against
Form & scorers
Watford · last 5
1W · 2D · 2L
Top scorers playing today
- Ethan GalbraithStoke4goals
Championship top scorers
- 1William LankshearMiddlesbrough5
- 2Cyle LarinSouthampton5
- 3Jimmy MorganWest Brom3
- 4Tyreece CampbellCharlton3
- 5Fer LópezWolverhampton3
- 6Mohamed ToureNorwich3
- 7Jarrod BowenWest Ham3
- 8Callum LangPreston NE3
Most likely scorelines
- #10 - 018.0%
- #21 - 015.5%
- #31 - 115.1%
- #42 - 010.1%
- #50 - 19.0%
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Probabilities derived from a Poisson goal-expectancy model with Dixon-Coles low-score correction. Read about the method →